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The Winter War in Ukraine

November 12, 2022 – Despite Ukraine’s advances in the Russian occupied east, attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure could make winter worse for Kyiv. Conflict over grain exports, the size of aid supplies, and power grid replacement parts could also shift how Ukraine fares during the winter months. And as the conflict wears on, Europe’s energy situation continues to shift towards a decoupling with Russia.

“We’re seeing this is becoming a real security issue with the Russians using food as a weapon of war turning off and turning on grain supplies as a way to try to coerce and manipulate the West,” said Matthew Kroenig, acting director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. Europe is also planning for a long-term change in energy policy, with most countries changing from relying on Russian energy exports. Watch the video above to find out more about the challenges Ukraine and Europe face this winter, and the potential solutions to these pressing problems.

November 28, 2022 – In the freezing, muddy trenches of the Ukrainian front lines – the scenes are reminiscent of the first world war. A bitter fight between Russia and Ukraine for every inch of territory – with troops under almost constant fire. The Russians remain in control of the city of Donetsk in the illegally annexed Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. But fighting continues to the west of the city as Ukrainian forces defend positions to prevent Russian advances.

Our international editor Lindsey Hilsum travelled to the Ukranian forward positions to the east of the strategic town of Krasnohorivka just a few kilometres west of Donetsk and spent the day with the 79th Air Assault brigade, who are digging in for a long, cold winter. She joins us now from the city of Kramatorsk, which has been hit repeatedly by Russian missiles in recent days.

December 8, 2022 – After 10 months of war, Russian advances and Ukrainian counter-offensives, winter weather has arrived in Ukraine. Russia may have retreated from Kherson in early November, but Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure over the last month signal a new phase of the war, as Putin weaponizes the cold weather. So as parts of Ukraine plunge into sub-zero temperatures and pressure mounts on Putin to negotiate, how might this war evolve as we enter the winter months?

In today’s episode of the Fourcast, we speak to our international editor Lindsey Hilsum – who is currently on her fifth trip to Ukraine since the war began – about what it’s like to be in the muddy trenches with Ukrainian soldiers, Russia’s culture war against Ukraine and if we can expect the war to slow down in the coming months.

“And then we went for it. It’s all fine. You just do it. You just do it. And then you know you have an amazing story. And why is the story amazing? Because we have a taste of what the (Ukrainian) soldiers are going through. It’s not because I was shot at, I mean, what the hell, it happens . . .

. . . you understand in this brief moment what it’s like for these soldiers on the front line. They are not leaving after a few minutes and going back to their hotel and having a drink. They are staying there, and they will be staying there all winter . . . and it’s the same for the Russian soldiers.”

– Lindsey Hilsum, in the trenches with a Ukrainian artillery battery in Bakhmut, a ruin that used to be a town, near Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. (This is an exceptional lady. There is way more to this British warrior woman war reporter than you can see on the surface).

December 8, 2022 – As temperatures plunge in Ukraine, the war is entering a new and brutal phase. Russia’s attacks on critical infrastructure amount to weaponizing winter. As Ukrainian civilians shelter in bombed-out houses without power and water and soldiers in flooded trenches face heavy shelling.

What will it take for one side or the other to gain advantage as fighting slows and conditions worsen We’re asking: Russia vs. Ukraine: Who is better equipped for the winter war? Our guests: Ulrike Franke, (European Council on Foreign Relations), Nico Lange (Munich Security Conference), Thomas Wiegold (freelance journalist and military expert).

Chapters
00:00 Opener
01:30 War in winter
03:30 Fighting will continue in winter
05:00 Will Russians or Ukrainians be more resilient in winter?
07:50 Morale in war
10:00 War tactics in winter
11:50 Full-fledged drone warfare?
12.45: The risk of escalation
15:20 Who has the advantage when it comes to drones?
16:20 Will EU sanctions choke off Russia’s access?
18:00 Russia still has a lot of weapons
21:40 Will the West sustain support if winter is tough?
23.30 Is Germany doing enough?

December 13, 2022 – The cold will not let up. Neither will the fighting. As a conference for Ukraine brings allies and investors to Paris, Russia continues to pound critical infrastructure. How to talk rebuilding when Moscow’s still destroying? We ask our panel where priorities lie, who pays for what and at what point national security interests trump trade and business as usual.

December 14, 2022 – There could be total collapse of the Russian Army and Vladimir Putin’s plans as its forces risk being bogged down around Bakhmut, while Ukraine looks to a possible ground offensive and a breakthrough in the war. Experts say that the icy conditions could present Ukraine with an opportunity to attack, but as frozen soldiers in trenches battle over inches of territory, Vladimir Putin still thinks he can win the war and hopes a winter slowdown will give his forces a chance to regroup while bombarding Ukrainian positions with artillery. Putin is also targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with waves of cruise missiles and drones to freeze the population into submission and put pressure on Ukraine’s western backers. So, will the winter swing the war in Russia’s favor or can Ukraine use the coming freeze to launch another counter offensive and push Russian forces back again?

December 17, 2022 – Unlike last year, it’ll be a cold and hungry Christmas for Ukrainians suffering from Russia’s ongoing assault against their homes and villages. Lacking food, water, and heat, tens of thousands are flooding into neighboring countries in Europe. Sergey Rakhuba of Mission Eurasia explains how some compassionate Christians are making a difference. CBN’s Gary Lane has the details.

December 18, 2022 – Russian drones and missiles keep targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Christmas is just around the corner, but for Ukraine this will be a grim holiday season. Our guest today is political scientist Professor Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski.

December 19, 2022 – Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, children in the country’s east had some joy and Christmas mood as police officers treated them with presents to mark St. Nicholas Day. A police unit visited two villages in Donetsk region, Sviatohirsk and Lyman, which mostly emptied out as civilians fled the region, but some families with children decided to stay.

During a festive celebration with a man dressed in a St Nicholas costume, police handed out gift boxes with candies, toys, sportswear and first aid kits inside to the children. The 10-month-old conflict in Ukraine is the biggest in Europe since World War Two, killing tens of thousands of people, driving millions from their homes and reducing cities to ruins.

December 19, 2022 – The widow and mother of a Ukrainian soldier who was killed in action while fighting against Russian troops in April decorate a Christmas tree on his grave in Lviv, as they prepare to spend their first Christmas holidays without him.

March 19, 2023 – The Russian invasion of 2022 began with a multi-pronged winter invasion of Ukrainian territory. After a series of reverses in late 2022, the Russian effort to reclaim the initiative in Ukraine seems to have begun with another multi-pronged winter offensive. In this episode, I look at the way that offensive has played out, what observations and lessons might come out of the last three months, and what that may mean for the war to come. Also, we’re going to talk about the shovels story, because we have to do better than that.

March 24, 2023 – The Russia winter offensive in Ukraine failed. Why? Ukraine knew a Russian attack was coming. After winning decisive victories in the battles for Kharkiv and Kherson late last year, Kyiv’s men dug in along the new frontline and waited. As January arrived, in the depths of the Eastern European winter, the Russians came for them. For the last two months, Putin’s generals have been hurling men, armor and artillery at Ukrainian positions all along the 600-mile front, in some of the deadliest battles of the war. But, as the dust begins to settle and the blood begins to dry, Russia has almost nothing to show for it.

0:00 Ukraine knew a Russia winter offensive was coming
1:23 Bakhmut in August, then Soledar in January – but not all went to plan for Putin and Wagner
3:29 Kreminna: Russia threw 30,000 men at it…but has little to show for it
4:47 Vuhledar: The biggest tank battle of the Russia Ukraine war
6:29 What next in the Ukraine Russia war?

April 6, 2023 – It’s official: the Russian winter offensive has entirely failed || 2023